What we are NOT

I am still in the process of establishing what I will present on this site and why it will be of interest to some people.

One thing I know we will not do is jump around with market calls based on a bit of this and a bit of that, without following some sort of model. For better or for worse I am someone who subscribes to a school of thought and therefore a model of some sorts. In certain circumstances the model of the theory allows for general observations other times it is far more specific. But I cannot subscribe to this all too common notion of the markets will do this because of this research note I just read or it will do that because of that report, when these reports are in conflict with the essence of ones beliefs.

I have a lot more to say on this subject and want to save it for a different time, for now I want reflect on what will I show in this blog that will make it interesting for the reader and more particularly for me the writer.

  1. I want to show some nice top down overview tables of the performance of various markets on our watch list.
  2. I want to try and highlight where there have been extreme moves so as to draw attention to these markets.
  3. I want to show a few long term timing models and what there current position are now relative to their backtests.
  4. There are a couple of economic studies I want to build and report. For instance what happens to the markets when unemployment is above X %.
  5. I want to design a few new interesting charts.

In essence I want to back up all my commentary with quantifiable results. So no empty calls but rather research backing up my calls.

The one thing I have left off is how I intend to incorporate my Jungian psychology model of the Market Complex to these pages. The reason is partly because I don’t know, however, I think a more accurate description would be because I am still currently researching the topic. I think it would be fair to say that my work will revolve around volatility. I plan to move further and further away from directional bias, and seek regime shifts in volatility as my calling.

 

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