Recession Alert

One of the few the subscription services I pay for is the very interesting work done by Dwaine van Vuuren, he brings a very interesting econometric / quant trading angle to the markets. While his service started off mainly about forecasting when the next recession in the US will take place, he has also developed a very interesting market timing model on the SP500.

One of the projects I wanted to try and do is write about my feelings trading this system. The challenge is that I have no money invested in it. I think he has done a decent job back testing the strategy and he has deployed some very decent money management techniques, the question remains does his system have something special. I think it is better than 99.5% of what is out there, but I have that nagging feeling in the base of my stomach, is this system going to be around 2 – 3 years from now if it goes through a bigger than anticipated drawdown.

In the meanwhile I am keen to explore it as things unfold. The system is really killing it at the moment, and managed to get back in very soon after that decent pull back in October.


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