We all hear that many institutions look at the momentum strategy where you go long when the 50 day moving average is above the 200 day average. As you will see below from 1993 this has been a pretty effective strategy using daily data applied to the S&P 500. For your information the strategy is still long despite the recent volatility.
Here is a chart showing the moving averages, the yellow is the 50 day and the red is the 200 day.
Here are the backtest results:
For those wanting to see the R code generating these charts and stats here it is:
require(quantmod) require(PerformanceAnalytics) #get the data and fill out the MA getSymbols('SPY', from='1950-01-01') SPY$ma200 <- SMA(Cl(SPY), 200) SPY$ma50 <- SMA(Cl(SPY), 50) #lets look at it from 1990 to 2015 spy <- SPY['1990/2015'] #our baseline, unfiltered results ret <- ROC(Cl(spy)) #our comparision, filtered result ma_sig <- Lag(ifelse(SPY$ma50 > SPY$ma200, 1, 0)) ma_ret <- ROC(Cl(spy)) * ma_sig golden<- cbind(ma_ret,ret) colnames(golden) = c('GoldCross','Buy&Hold') #Plot to visually see the actual moving averages chartSeries(spy, type = "line", name = "Moving Average : Golden Cross", TA= c(addSMA(50, col = 'yellow'), addSMA(200))) # lets see what the latest signals are 1 being a buy signal tail(ma_sig) maxDrawdown(golden) table.AnnualizedReturns(golden, Rf= 0.02/252) charts.PerformanceSummary(golden, Rf = 0.02, main="Golden Cross",geometric=FALSE)