Wow August was a pretty volatile month. In fact I believe the VIX recorded the largest 5 day % move in its 25yr history.
I am really happy with the way the Sefirot Freestyle portfolio performed and I am sure we will see continued outperformance during these choppy times.
I haven’t posted for sometime. I have been capturing some of my spontaneous thoughts on my twitter feed @mickson but in essence my thoughts have been almost exclusively focused on the new startup PsyQuation.
About 3 weeks ago I got some sort of flu virus and tried my best to beat it. I took things slow and mostly got on top of it. Then 2 weeks ago I went to Hong Kong to meet my partner and cofounder for a brainstorm session. We had a great week but the time zone and unfamiliar climate contributed to me catching a new virus in my left eye. Wow how crappy one feels when affected by a virus.
Last week I was in Melbourne where I tried to shake the virus, I took it very easy over the weekend and feeling a lot better today.
I say all this while my daughter suffers with a chronic rare condition at the age of 16, having spent most of her life fighting one ailment after another. I feel so weak and moody, and basically pretty useless with the “man flu”. I think however I am suffering also from a broken heart, as a father watching his precious child suffer. I wish this was a more positive sounding post, but this is how I feel right now.
The markets to me seem once again bipolar. This is not an ordinary time. We are seeing volatility and potential manic markets, and then shhhhh, quiet. It feels like the more the market wants to express its feelings the more it is inoculated with medicine to keep quiet. I maintain we will soon see the mother of all breakdowns.
And so the frustration continues. Struggling to make headwinds, it will come ……
I found this chart a nice visual display of important information. As a data scientist I am intrigued to see how the world of data visualisation is growing. The levels of creativity are truly astounding. I am amazed how some people see all the information in the raw numbers while others see the information through visual expression. I am in the latter camp.
I am currently working on a consulting project for a life company in which we are developing a business intelligence model from their data, and as you would expect the best way of creating this intelligence is through the visual medium.
Oops I wrote so much to say so little ………
Could it be that the bear has finally poked his head out from hibernation?
I have just found myself scrolling through some charts of major indexes getting a feel for how things have been performing of late. I have had no interest in the markets except for a brief period 2 weeks ago when watching the Shanghai exchange encounter a selloff.
I have noticed a little weakness the past few days and with yesterdays 8.5% selloff on the Shanghai exchange I have now some renewed interest. I looked at Gold, Oil which have been particular weak and now I can see the broad US indexes displaying some rolling over behaviour. I think this one can morph into something quite big. I have said that a few times, only to feel the ice cold draft prompting me back into hibernation.
I am feeling particularly ratty today, I know I had a late night and early start and some people in the office are annoying me. However as a journal writer over decades I have seen this pattern before where my mood often acts as a precursor to something bigger in the markets. Talk about seeing imaginary patterns, or not 🙂
Take a look at Gold and Shangai
I was speaking to one of my investors today and something was said that triggered a memory of something I recall learning from King Solomon in Mishlei (30:9). My investor a wealthy individual was describing his concern about his wealth following a string of unsuccessful investments.
King Solomon says in Mishlei (Proverbs) “Give me neither poverty nor wealth, a lot me my daily bread.” One of the interpretations of this verse relates to the fact that it isn’t only poor people who have worries, but rich people as well. The rich fear losing what they have, this can be equally as worrying as a poor person worrying about where their next dollar will come from. Logically it doesn’t make sense but the more wealthy people I come across the more I see them suffering with stress and anxiety about hanging onto that wealth.
We always say to ourselves that if only we had $X million we would be happy with no worries. Well I hate to shatter that illusion, I witnessed it today and King Solomon a thousand years ago tipped us off to this amazing insight.
My mother is a wise women, she always says to me pray for average. Mom you ain’t the fool you look 😉
It has been some time since I updated my Shiller PE timing model. I am pleased to say that the model was able to participate in the recent uptick and has gone to cash as of the 26th June. As you can see the Sharpe Ratio (risk adjusted return) of this model far outperforms the buy and hold of the S&P500 .